As 2025 comes to a close, the Q4 ad marketplace is sending mixed signals. Some media buyers are seeing spend soften across mid- and lower-funnel channels, while others report unexpected budget additions as brands push to maintain visibility. Economic volatility, shifting tariffs, and ongoing inflation concerns have made forecasting especially difficult — and the uncertainty is reshaping how agencies plan for 2026.
Among the voices tracking this movement is Scott Shamberg, President & CEO of Mile Marker, who offered critical insight in Digiday’s latest, Media Buying Briefing: : Q4 wobbles a bit, and buyers wonder how it will affect 2026 spending by Michael Burgi.
Buyers describe a Q4 that hasn’t collapsed, but hasn’t surged either. Some advertisers front-loaded budgets into upfronts for better pricing, leaving thinner scatter-market dollars than expected — especially in CTV.
Others, however, are still deploying meaningful end-of-year spending. Categories like healthcare, pharma, and retail remain relatively strong, while areas like CPG and financial services are showing signs of pullback.
One of the most notable dynamics shaping the market is the influence of principal media commitments among major holding companies — a factor contributing to more available inventory across platforms like Meta and Google.
Here’s how Scott Shamberg explains it:
“Undoubtedly principal media positions, as we get towards the end of the year, are having an influence on the way the market is moving.”
“Holding companies have commitments that pay off by the end of the calendar year… Q4 tends to be a budget dump. Maybe this year it’s not as big a budget dump, which means they’re holding more inventory than perhaps they have in the past.”
This pressure to fulfill annual commitments may be contributing to the aggressive incentives and added-value offerings some buyers say they’re seeing from second-tier CTV and audio sellers.
Despite the unevenness of Q4, brands aren’t heading into 2026 pessimistic. In fact, Shamberg notes that Mile Marker clients are largely aligned with projections of a 2–4% increase in media investment next year, depending on inflation and category conditions.
“The uncertainty theme is going to continue forward, but people are more optimistic going into 2026 in terms of their spend than they were going into ‘25.”
That optimism will be stress-tested immediately: 2026 brings a packed slate of major events — Winter Olympics, the Super Bowl, the World Cup in the U.S., and midterm elections — all of which will intensify competition for media inventory.
Q4’s unpredictability is shaping how agencies approach 2026: with more scenario planning, more flexibility, and a sharper eye on how macroeconomic forces impact media supply and demand. While no one is hitting the panic button, the market’s undercurrent of uncertainty is unmistakable.
Still, as Shamberg highlights, brands seem more prepared — and more willing — to lean into calculated growth than they were entering 2025.
Want the complete analysis on how Q4 volatility is reshaping media spend and planning?
Read the full report on Digiday.
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