As the 2025 holiday season approaches, consumer confidence appears low. The University of Michigan reported sentiment down 10% year-over-year, and surveys show nearly half of U.S. households say their finances aren’t keeping up with inflation. At face value, this may seem like a warning sign for brands to measure marketing impact more carefully.. But sentiment data alone doesn’t always reflect what’s happening in the market.
The Sentiment–Spend Disconnect
Despite pessimistic consumer surveys, ad investment has remained steady. Many marketers are still leaning into holiday media opportunities, especially across retail media, paid social, search, and live sports. The reason: consumer sentiment doesn’t directly translate into purchase behavior anymore. Since the pandemic, the historical link between confidence levels and ad spend has weakened — meaning brands that pull back too quickly risk missing growth opportunities.
Staying Flexible Amid Uncertainty
Scott Shamberg, CEO of Mile Marker Agency, noted that clients remain “cautiously optimistic” heading into Q4. The key is agility — brands are balancing economic headwinds with strategies that keep them nimble and responsive. That means doubling down on channels closest to conversion, while still investing in brand activity to keep the funnel healthy long-term.
Measure Marketing Impact— Why Matters More Than Ever
When uncertainty runs high, the smartest move isn’t to retreat — it’s to measure marketing impact with precision. Brands need to look beyond surface-level sentiment and track what campaigns are truly driving incremental growth. Incrementality testing, cross-channel attribution, and retail media analytics all play a role in proving value to CFOs and protecting budgets.
The Takeaway
Low consumer sentiment shouldn’t scare marketers into cutting brand investment. The brands that win this holiday season will be the ones that stay agile, defend budgets with data, and measure marketing impact with clarity.
Want to know more about staying agile and defending budgets with data? Get in contact with us today.
