With OpenAI’s ads business hitting a $1 billion projected yearly revenue run rate in its first six months, generative AI search is emerging as a pioneer for digital advertisers. However, the real story isn’t just about the impressive numbers; it is about navigating the measurement and attribution gaps of a channel that is growing rapidly yet remains basic. In AdExchanger’s recent analysis by Joanna Gerber, industry leaders, including Mile Marker’s VP of Biddable COE Monica Shukla, weighed in on the channel’s commercial potential and the standardizations required to move ChatGPT ads from test budgets to core ad budgets.

The Value of Being Early

While OpenAI’s run rate projection doesn’t match its earlier estimates of $2.5 billion, the six-month-old ads business is experiencing remarkable momentum. Advertisers are eager to capture early advantages on the platform, experimenting with conversational search behavior before the marketplace becomes crowded.

Monica Shukla noted in the report that there is strategic value in entering the space before it becomes saturated. “Right now, a lot of clients see value in being early to ChatGPT ads,” she said. This early adoption allows brands to establish a strong presence and build relationships with the emerging channel “before the space gets commoditized.”

Navigating the Measurement Deficit

Despite the commercial interest and strong purchase intent, the generative AI search channel faces significant hurdles in standardization and attribution. Advertisers are accustomed to robust targeting, competitor benchmarks, and cross-channel tracking—all of which are currently limited or absent on OpenAI’s platform, making it feel “very rudimentary” to early adopters.

While conversion-optimized campaigns and API integrations are steps in the right direction, Shukla emphasized that the ultimate value lies in the channel’s unique ability to drive intent-based performance. Conversational queries are a great way to “surface need-states and purchase intent,” she noted, contributing directly to incremental sales.

However, until advertisers can accurately measure long-term effects and integrate ChatGPT ads into third-party MMM and incrementality tools, smart marketers will remain careful, keeping their investments within “test” budgets rather than core allocations.

Generative AI search represents a massive opportunity to engage consumers at peak purchase intent, but the winners in 2026 will be those who balance early experimentation with rigorous measurement. Success requires looking past the $1 billion run rate headline to demand the robust attribution and cross-channel modeling tools necessary to prove true marketing impact. 

Read the full analysis: See how agencies are adjusting their AI search media strategies. Read the full report on AdExchanger.
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